Assessment of Heat Risk of Winter Wheat Cropping Based on Long-Term Meteorological Data

The frequency of heat events is likely to increase due global climate change, posing an increasing risk wheat production. To optimize crop management strategies for coping with future climates, it crucial quantify the high-temperature occurrence during cropping seasons. Here, sixty-six years (1955~2020) meteorological data reproductive growth were collected from six stations in Huaibei Plain Anhui Province. These analyzed pattern and characteristics post-anthesis stress crops. Five levels annual mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) defined, normal extreme temperatures. Six developmental phases winter wheat, i.e., phase i vi, divided flowering maturity. suggest 17~24 °C maturity, effective cumulative ranging 725 d 956 d. increased as progressed, along more frequent ii (8~14 days after anthesis) iii (15~21 anthesis). We also found that extremely high temperatures (≥33 °C) 1990 2020 was significantly greater than 1957 1990. Interestingly, intensity night growth, vi. Wheat grain yield accumulative Tmax, but started decline when thresholds Tmax reached. Overall, these findings could provide guidelines Plain, China, or similar regions.